The Browser: Truth and rumors from the tech world
Everyone is just trying to avoid another dot com bubble, like what happen in the late 90’s, unfortunately I believe it’s human nature. It is very difficult to have the clarity of mind to see things as they actually are, unclouded by fear or hope, just as they are, not how you or I would like them to be. The same will be true for virtual economies.
Over at Valleywag, where sanctimony can sometimes reign, a professor named Clay Shirky has been getting some attention for criticizing how Linden Lab reports the numbers for its fast-growing Second Life virtual world. But along with his acidic criticism of Linden Lab’s numbers, he seems even more eager to direct vitriol at the business press, including myself. His contempt is aimed at articles in various publications and websites, including a column I wrote in November at Fortune.com. Shirky is outraged that writers should report without comment the number of registrants Linden Lab has accumulated for Second Life, the figure the company calls “residents”. He is especially offended by references like one I made November 10 to the “1.3 million members” of the service. To give him the minimal due he deserves, he’s correct in noting that my use of “members” was inaccurate. In fact, the “residents” number merely reports how many people have tried to sign up for an avatar they can use in the world of Second Life. As I said in my initial column, the system is very difficult to use. In fact the majority of registrants, it would seem, either give up immediately or else very infrequently return. While millions may have registered, only 15-20,000 are in the world at any given time. Linden Lab CEO Philip Rosedale said in November that three months after registration, about 10% of registrants still log in at least weekly, a figure that has remained consistent even as the service grows.However, the growth of the resident figure remains astonishing. On January 1 it surpassed 2.3 million, an increase of one million – or 77% – since my piece less than two months ago. Shirky is entitled to think that is not noteworthy, but it is.More significantly, actual use is rising at a comparably rapid rate, albeit at much lower levels. In fact Linden Lab publishes extensive data about its own growth. These charts show that user hours, number of paying members, land creation, and in-world economic activity are all growing exponentially. For instance, the number of paying residents has more than doubled since June to over 40,000. (You don’t have to pay to use Second Life, and many who go there merely to sightsee do not.) User hours per month grew from about 3.5 million in June to 7.5 million in December.
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