CountryWatch – Country Review
Tide of refugees from Iraq troubles region – Africa & Middle East – International Herald Tribune
AMMAN: As bloodshed in Iraq worsens, the tide of refugees fleeing the country is straining resources in the region and inflaming fears that Iraq’s sectarian conflict might spread to neighboring countries.
A new United Nations report says Iraq is “hemorrhaging” refugees in staggering numbers. Between 2,000 and 3,000 people are fleeing the country every day. After three and a half years of nearly constant violence, at least 1.5 million Iraqi refugees have moved to neighboring countries, reshaping the already complex demographic mosaics of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
I had a discussion with a friend last week in which I made the following observation, to which he agreed. Everyone knows that the war in iraq is going badly. Everyone knows that Iraqis are leaving Iraq by the droves every day. But, no one has commented on how this population flight has impacted Iraq’s ability to be a functioning society.
My premise is simple, in order for any society to function, there needs to be different people with different skill sets, each selling and buying each others goods and service. In other words, in order for people to enjoy a good standard of living there needs to be specialization of labor. For example, a doctor needs to have a home built for his family; he needs a general contractor. The contractor, in turn, needs a carpenter, electrian, plumber, etc.. The doctor can focus on doing what he does best, practice medicine. The same is true for all the other professional I mentioned above. Each is able to enjoy the services provided by the other and each is able to focus on being proficent in his/her craft. This enables an individual to enjoy the benefits of other people’s skills by selling what he or she does best. This phenomena has been refer to by Adam Smith as the “division of labor“. An individual doesn’t have to be good at every skill in order to enjoy a good standard of living, just one skill that other people need.
My observation is simply that with so many people leaving Iraq every day, this division of labor, which makes modern living possible, may break down. In fact, if someone is a skilled professional such as: doctor, nurse, lawyer, plumber, mechanic, carpenter, etc…, they are more likely to leave Iraq. Why?, because their skill sets enable them to earn a living in another country. This leaves only two groups in Iraq, the poor, who lack the means to start a new life in Syria, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia, and the Militias, who want to fight. Of course, this cycle tends to reinforce itself, as the concentration of iraqis who are poor and/or part of the militias increases, so does the incentive for the Iraqis who occupy the higher echelons of society to leave. Or phrased a different way, a disincentive to stay and rebuild is created. The monied classes and those with the knowledge base that some refer to as human capital are precisely the people who are needed to rebuild Iraq. Yet, by virtue of who they are, it is also the easiest for them to leave and start a new life some place else. Not that starting a new life in some other counrty is easy, it just more feasible for someone with adequate financial resources than for some one without.
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